Episode 11 | Remodeling Industry Update and Forecast | Carmel Builders Sidelight Series

December 2, 2020

It has been an interesting summer and fall (it may be December and feel like Winter, but yes it is still fall) to say the least. A lot has changed, and our industry is no different. So, in episode 11 of our Sidelight Series Vlog, Carmel Builders President & Owner Louis Weiher shares some his knowledge, insights, and hopes into what the future looks like for remodeling industry and all that it requires to function.

Transcript:

Hi, its fall of 2020, and it’s been a heck of a year. I’ve had a lot of clients, and just friends, people I know best, say what’s going on in the industry? What do you think is going to happen in the next six months? The next year? And I certainly am not an expert. I can’t tell you for sure what we’re going to have happen. If we’ve learned one thing this year is that we have no idea what’s going to happen next. But I want to tell you a little bit about what’s happening in the industry right now, especially if you’re somebody who’s considering a project in the near future and near future right now, I would say within the next year.

The first one is that if you haven’t heard already, lumber prices are through the roof. It has been pretty crazy. We’ve seen lumber prices pretty much double since June of this year. So we’re looking in about four month span prices doubling. So obviously, if you’re doing a project like in addition or you’re building a new home, just be aware that the prices are going to increase quite a bit. What’s going to happen with lumber? I really don’t know. I keep hearing that it’s going to go back down at some point in time. But to be honest with you, I don’t see it happening any time soon. Just because demand is so, so high right now, that’s kind of a second thing is just kind of a demand on the industry overall.

Everybody is incredibly busy. It’s been a strange year. Like I said, we recognize how lucky we are to be in this industry because we have tremendous demand for our services. We were labeled an essential service from day one, so we never really had to shut down. And again, I realize how lucky we are because there’s a lot of people out there who are suffering businesses that are that are going under. And it’s strange to me, it really is, that we’re not facing any of that. We’re incredibly busy. Our partners are busy. Our peers are very busy. But if you’re thinking about a project and a lot of people are because they’ve been sitting at home looking at the kitchen that needs to be remodeled, know that there’s a pretty big backlog as far as availability for our partners.

That’s a big thing that’s happening right now. And projects are taking longer because supply chain is slowed down. We’re seeing just tremendous time frame for things to be slowed down. Plumbing, fixtures, windows, windows especially, appliances, just big delays on a lot of that stuff. So just know that whatever project you do is probably going to take longer than you had hoped it would. So, again, we don’t know what 2021 is going to bring. I can tell you my guess. And just from the people I know, my educated opinion on it is we’re going to see more of the same going forward for the next year.

I think that we’re going to probably see that people are going to continue to just try to get caught up with that backlog. It’s just it’s big for a lot of these manufacturers are going to be wearing masks probably for quite a while still. And that impacts manufacturers because these guys who are building the plumbing fixtures, building those appliances, they’re not able to produce like they were a year ago. So demand is really high. They lost a couple of months back in the spring when factories shut down. They still run the risk of factories shutting down if there’s any sort of outbreak. And the reality is there will be more outbreaks in some of these factories.

So I think more of the same in 2021. So I’ll tell you, just be patient, start early, have an honest discussion with your contractor. I think most of the people that are out there that I’m hearing from is they recognize this, they they’re going to be honest with you. They’re going to tell you what you’re up against. So everybody stay safe, stay healthy out there. You know, be kind to each other, because it’s been a tough year, but we’re all in it together and hopefully we will see a light at the tunnel soon. Thanks a lot.